bond markets

US Treasuries at 'tipping point': Stock-bond correlation shifts as fixed-income market issues recession warning

US Treasuries at ‘tipping point’: Stock-bond correlation shifts as fixed-income market issues recession warning

Bonds and stocks could return to their usual relationship, a boon for investors with a traditional mix of assets in their portfolios as the United States fears a recession this year. “At the end of the day, correlation has now reverted to more traditional correlation, where stocks and bonds don’t necessarily move together,” said Kathy …

US Treasuries at ‘tipping point’: Stock-bond correlation shifts as fixed-income market issues recession warning Read More »

Investors are “desperate” for a recession that forces the Fed to cut interest rates, but what will happen to markets if the economy remains healthy?

Investors are “desperate” for a recession that forces the Fed to cut interest rates, but what will happen to markets if the economy remains healthy?

As 2023 kicks off, markets are clinging to expectations that the U.S. economy will slide into a recession that effectively forces the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates, slashing bond yields and borrowing costs, and perhaps help stock market valuations. U.S. economic data released over the past few months shows that inflation has moderated, …

Investors are “desperate” for a recession that forces the Fed to cut interest rates, but what will happen to markets if the economy remains healthy? Read More »

Economist who pioneered use of closely-watched recession tool says it could send 'wrong signal'

Economist who pioneered use of closely-watched recession tool says it could send ‘wrong signal’

For months, the bond market has issued multiple warnings that a US recession could be imminent, a view that many financial market participants have finally accepted. One is the 10-year minus 3-month treasury yield spread, which has been below zero since late October, but hasn’t been negative long enough to send a definitive statement about …

Economist who pioneered use of closely-watched recession tool says it could send ‘wrong signal’ Read More »

This hedge fund manager who made winning bets in 2020 says investors should prepare for a decades-long bear market

This hedge fund manager who made winning bets in 2020 says investors should prepare for a decades-long bear market

On the heels of last week’s bullish turn for equities, the market got off to a mixed start on Monday. Hong Kong stocks could affect the mood with a giant slump after the Chinese leader consolidates his power. And we are entering a Fed blackout period ahead of next week’s meeting that is expected to …

This hedge fund manager who made winning bets in 2020 says investors should prepare for a decades-long bear market Read More »